Wagerly
A social prediction market designed around understandable probability.
Artifacts
- Product
- Architecture
Why
The product explored how prediction markets could communicate probability to people who do not read order books.
Approach
Bet creation used a short mobile flow, while settlement made the movement from pool to winners explicit. A denser web surface supported research and position monitoring.
Results
The project produced mobile and web product surfaces around a parimutuel settlement engine and ledger.
Things I got wrong
Social mechanics easily overwhelmed the market itself. Keeping the feed one level below the betting surface made the product's core purpose clearer.
Future work
Archived as entrepreneurship work rather than part of the current research programme.